StAP (Statistically Assisted Profiling)
About this good practice
The aim of introducing Statistically assisted profiling was to support the activation and counselling work in employment offices by using an evidence-based tool. By using existing data on individuals’ unemployment history and other background variables (18 variables overall, eg. age, education, occupation), a probability assessment of employment within the next 12 months is made, as well as assessing the risk of becoming long-term unemployed.
As profiling outcome, individuals are sorted into groups defined by the level of risk of being long-term unemployed (perceived distance from the labour market). The result is shown to the counsellor graphically and textually as recommendation. It consists of two different pictures. One shows the probability of employment within 12 months (or 4 months for youth under 30 based on Youth Guarantee). Appropriate activities are also recommended. In addition, after calculating distance from the labour market, individual attributes with a significant impact on the probability of employment (or becoming LTU) are presented.
StAP is carried out in all PES offices since 2018. All jobseekers are automatically profiled upon registration, and all PES counsellors are trained.
One of its main benefits is that it helps with more accurate grouping of individuals, thus unburdening scarce resources to work with groups at risk.
The success of profiling is measured by a counsellor satisfaction survey; 90% of counsellors found statistical profiling useful.
Resources needed
To set up and to run the profiling practice, 150.000€ was needed. The statistical model was designed by an external analyst, and during the project piloting, support was provided through consultants and trainers. All counsellors conducting the profiling are PES employees, provided with training.
Evidence of success
Since its introduction in 2018, StAP was applied to all unemployed persons upon registering with PES, which the vast majority of counsellors (90%) have evaluated to be useful. The value of StAP profiling came into focus especially during the COVID-19 pandemic when StAP was essential for segmentation of jobseekers, since personal contact was extremely limited during that period.
Potential for learning or transfer
The practice has a large transfer potential. Being already applied for all newly registered job seekers, it is suitable for large populations. It could be fully transferred to other regions or countries, but should potentially be modified depending on the specific database of each country. Different countries could have different data available during registration with PES, which could in some cases provide even more information and better estimation of the probability of employment. The practice could be interesting to other countries because of its ability to segment job seekers according to unemployment risk and provide them with targeting interventions. Although the practice is not particularly innovative because many countries have already implemented some form of statistical model, the innovation is in the possibility of adding and retracting the attributes as well as in adjusting the model to labour market trends.